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Argus World Urea Outlook to 2030

An Argus Strategy Report

The changes, which will affect the nitrogen sector in general, are significant and are the result in part of the direct and indirect impact of the shale revolution in the US and the recent downward shift in oil pricing to sub-$50 from $110/bl. However, it is the reaction to these developments of Chinese exporters – who accounted for 13.6 mn tonnes or c.30% of international trade in 2014 and 2015 – which will be fundamental to the evolution of the market in the next 15 years. Already in 2016, as international urea prices have fallen below $200/t, Chinese exporters have withdrawn tonnage from the export market.

Key Features:

  • Cost competiveness and the prospects for the world’s current and future exporters. Including China’s coal-based market participants who will set both the price floor and price ceiling of the market

  • A 14 year projection of country-by-country urea and nitrogen fertilizer demand, urea capacity, production, imports and exports

  • Evolving global balances and the consequent impact on pricing for key fob Middle East, North Africa and NOLA granular urea benchmarks and fob Black Sea prilled reference price

Argus Consulting Services have developed a detailed long-term model of the urea market on a country-by country basis. The Argus World Urea Outlook to 2030 is accompanied by a data set available to download, and gives access to the key annual country level data covering a 10 year history from 2005 and 14 year forecast to 2030.

Data & Downloads

This service also features downloadable market data published in spreadsheet format, available only in Argus Direct.

  • 2015 World Urea Data


As one of our series of strategy reports, this report is targeted at those making long-term planning decisions including investors.

View the complete list of Argus strategy reports

Nitrogen Coverage

The Argus World Urea Outlook to 2030 is part of our wider nitrogen coverage, which also includes:

Argus Nitrogen - A market service, published weekly

Argus Monthly Urea Outlook - A market forecast service, published monthly

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Argus Consulting Services has over 30 years of experience in fertilizers and chemicals, providing effective consultancy services for producers, buyers, investors, banks, governments and multilateral agencies.