Argus Seaborne Thermal Coal Outlooks
Prices have been maintained at high levels to the start of August, but we continue to consider the factors supporting prices at current levels as transient...
Prices have held on to recent levels for longer than we have been forecasting, but that has not deterred us from our longer-term view that prices are more likely to move significantly lower over the next 12 months...
We have increased our price forecasts covering the next few months...
Three point summary – Key drivers of price forecasts
- Inventories kept low by strong demand
- Weather conditions favourable to coal burn
- Supply growth likely to remain strong
Summary of forecast by benchmark
- cif ARA
- fob Richards Bay
- fob Newcastle 6,000
- fob Newcastle 5,500
- fob Indonesia 5,500
- fob Indonesia 4,600
- fob Indonesia 3,900
- cfr China 5,500
August in focus
US and seaborne coal markets
The US has responded to stronger export prices, with exports of thermal and metallurgical coal jumping sharply...