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Argus Monthly Phosphates Outlook

 

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OUTLOOK

The month ahead
DAP prices east of Suez will erode marginally, while Brazilian MAP prices will also fall...

The next 3-6 months
Clarity on the implementation of the Indian DBT from 1 January 2018 will be required to get the system running ahead of the kharif...

12 months forward
Supply-side discipline and the rationalisation of high-cost plants will continue in 2018, with lower global prices inevitable...

                       
OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Any sense that market sentiment, at least west of Suez, was improving quickly diminished after the IFA conference in late May...

                         

DESTINATION MARKETS

India
Indian DAP import demand is unexceptional, with imports in this year’s April-June kharif season totalling 1.1mn t, compared with 1.6mn t in the same period in 2016...

Pakistan
Pakistan is estimated to have covered 60pc of its around 1mn t/yr import requirements...

Turkey
Turkish DAP fertilizer imports in January-May 2017 totalled 245,000t, up by 3pc year on year...

Brazil
The Brazilian MAP market remains in retreat...

                    

PRODUCTION COSTS

The GST – a new tax regime for goods and services sold within India, replacing the state-level VAT and sales tax – was introduced on 1 July...

                   

NEW CAPACITY

Saudi Arabia – Ma’aden’s Wa’ad al-Shamal complex (MWSPC) began trial phosphate production on 8 July...

                    

PHOSPHATE ROCK BALANCE

Minimal revisions have been made to the global phosphate rock balance...

                     

PHOSPHORIC ACID BALANCE

Minimal revisions have been made to the global phosphate acid balance...

                 

DAP BALANCE

The global DAP balance is forecast to be relatively stable in August and September...

                     
MAP BALANCE

The global MAP market will be relatively balanced through to the end of 2017 and into 2018...

               

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World Processed Phosphates Outlook to 2029

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World Phosphate Rock Outlook to 2029 

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