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Argus Monthly Sulphur Outlook

 

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6/19更新情報

                     

OUTLOOK

The month ahead 
Third-quarter contract negotiations are due to begin, with Middle East producers targeting a rollover from the second quarter, but consumer resistance is expected...

The next 3-6 months
Production from the Kashagan project will enter the market at the end of the third quarter, altering the global supply and demand balance and forcing Middle East suppliers to offer more competitive prices...

12 months forward
The emergence of new capacity in the short term, following the commissioning of large-scale oil and natural gas projects, will keep the market in surplus and prevent a sustained recovery in prices...

                     
 

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

The global sulphur market is now on the brink of entering negotiations for third-quarter contracts...

                
 

REGIONAL OUTLOOK

China 
China’s granular prices has increased for five consecutive weeks, with purchases in the north of the country leading the upward movement, as phosphate producers look to rebuild inventories, despite weak market sentiment and the start of a decline in domestic prices... 

India 
Indian assessed spot prices increased slightly by $3/t to $95-98/t cfr on 15 June from 11 May, following rolling business above the mid-$90s/t cfr... 

Middle East
Discussions for third-quarter contracts are not expected to start until after Ramadan and the Eid al-Fitr holiday, and conclusions are unlikely to be drawn before the start of the third quarter...

North Africa and Mediterranean
OCP is not buying and would be looking to pay prices in line with the second-quarter contract range if it was to lift any spot supply...

Europe
Market participants have indicated that they do not expect negotiations for third-quarter contracts to start until the end of this month for cfr Benelux and cpt northwest European shipments...

FSU 
The Black Sea spot price fell slightly to $56-75/t fob on 19 June from $58-75/t fob on 11 May, following the sale of two Romanian crushed lump cargoes to Egypt in the mid-$50s/t fob...

North America 
The Vancouver fob price rose to $78-87/t on 15 June from $72-80/t on 11 May, as Noracid awarded a 50,000t tender in the low $80s/t and Fertinal awarded a 55,000t monthly tender for delivery to Mexico at $86-87/t... 

Brazil 
The Brazil cfr spot price assessment increased to $96-98/t on 15 June from $92-94/t on 11 May...
                  

IMPORT AND EXPORT OUTLOOK

China 
China imported 3.8mn t of sulphur in January-April, down by 8pc compared with a year earlier...

India 
India imported 272,000t of sulphur in the first quarter of this year, down by 27pc compared with a year earlier, partly driven by limited demand for phosphate fertilizer production...

Brazil 
Brazil imported 855,000t of sulphur in January-May, up by 18pc on the year...

North America 
Canadian exports fell by 5pc year on year in January-April to 922,000t, reflecting lower production... 

FSU
Russia exported 673,000t of sulphur in the first quarter, down by 40pc compared with a year earlier and its lowest total for the period since 2012...

                

RELATED MARKETS

Ammonium phosphates
The phosphates market remains weak in mid-June...

Sulphuric acid
The European Sulphuric Acid Association’s biannual conference in Athens, Greece, on 7-8 June gave market participants pause to review the market so far and consider what the rest of this year might bring... 

Natural gas
The gas market entered the summer cooling season at the beginning of June, when gas demand from the power sector usually starts to increase...

Crude
Eliminating the crude supply surplus looks like an impossible goal...

                        

 

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