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Argus Monthly Urea Outlook

 

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8/8 更新情報

 

                                                

OUTLOOK

The month ahead
Urea prices bottomed out in early July and have since started a slow recovery that is expected to continue through September...

The next 3-6 months
The urea market will be balanced-to-short in September-November as a result of seasonally stronger demand, which could continue until the end of the year...

12 months forward
The balanced market in the fourth quarter of 2017 gives way to a surplus in the first quarter of 2018 when prices are forecast to come under pressure again..

           

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

The next three months
Urea prices bottomed out in early July and have since started a slow recovery that is expected to continue through September...              

  • China
  • North America
  • Ukraine
  • Middle East
  • India
  • Africa

The next 3-6 months
The trade balance forecasts show a balanced-to-short market in September-November amid seasonally stronger demand, which could continue to the end of the year...

9-12 months forward
The balanced market in the fourth quarter of 2017 gives way to a surplus in the first quarter of 2018, when prices are forecast to come under pressure again...

                       

REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Black Sea
Russian suppliers are comfortable for the month of August, having sold most of the prilled urea available for shipment...

Middle East
Middle East producers sold granular urea at $190/t fob in the July Indian tender and have since sold at $196-203/t for for end-August and September loading...

China
Prilled urea prices remain above $220/t fob for August, with few producers now showing any interest in exporting urea...

Egypt
Reduced availability for export in July and August, together with unexpectedly strong demand from Turkey, allowed Egyptian producers to maintain prices for granular urea above $200/t fob since out last report...

US Gulf coast
US Gulf granular urea prices have risen since the previous Outlook, moving into the $180s/st fob Nola...

                      
DEMAND OUTLOOK

Activity has picked up in markets west of Suez, with both Brail and Turkey active, while seasonal shipments to Canada are starting and Central American markets continue to buy urea...

India
Urea sales in April-June were at 6.3mn t, up by 10pc compared with 2016-17...

Australia
Concerns over a lack of rainfall proved to be well-founded and dry conditions are affecting Western Australia in particular, as well as parts of the eastern states...

Thailand
The weather and crop forecasts of a bumper season have been borne out and demand for urea has continued into August, with especially high contract shipments evident from Saudi Arabia...

US
No urea vessels were recorded loading for the US in July...

Europe
Turkish buying has resumed, with traders and end-buyers booking mainly Egyptian urea for August shipment...

Latin America
Mexico has bought additional cargoes of prilled and granular urea for August shipment and is now approaching the end of the main season outside the northwest, so demand will begin to ease...

Brazil
After a slow period in July, demand has risen again for August shipments and we estimate that upwards of 400,000t of urea will load for Brazil this month...
                   

SUPPLY ANALYSIS

Production costs
Ukrainian state-owned gas company Naftogaz lowered the July gas price to 6,007-6,674 hryvnia/’000m3 from HRN6,192-6,875/’000m3 in June...

Henry Hub
Natural gas became the top fuel for US power generation last year, but it is a title it could surrender in 2017...

TTF
TTF prompt prices mostly held lower in the second half of July as Dutch imports remained brisk and domestic demand edged lower...

              
           

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