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Argus Quarterly Potash Outlook

 

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7/11更新情報

                 

                                   

OUTLOOK

The month ahead
The potash market is finely balanced heading into the second half of 2017 as annual Chinese/Indian contract negotiations are continuing...

The next 3-6 months
Chinese contract price to set the global price floor...

12 months forward
Further capacity additions and rising production will prevent a sustained recovery in prices, with a lower price environment limiting some suppliers’ trade geographically, while enabling others to enjoy a competitive advantage where they have strategic location...

                          
 

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

The potash market is finely balanced heading into the second half of 2017...

                        
 

REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Southeast Asia 
Southeast Asia cfr prices for standard MOP have risen to $240-260/t cfr as of early July this year, compared with $225-265/t cfr in June last year, with Malaysia and Indonesia setting the lower range of around $240-250/t cfr...

Malaysia 
Malaysia’s crude palm oil (CPO) output and exports jumped to 363,000t in May from 170,000t in April, Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) data show...

Indonesia 
Heavy rainfall in February and March delayed application at certain Indonesian plantations, and some were unable to complete their full year’s fertilizer programme...

Thailand 
Suppliers and importers continue to discuss prices for the remainder of the third quarter... 

Vietnam 
Laotian standard MOP is indicated in the range of $240-250/t cfr equivalent...

Philippines 
Standard MOP offers are at around $260/t cfr, but NPK buyers are reporting sales done at around $250/t cfr...

Sri Lanka 
The Sri Lanka government is expected to tender for around 12,000-15,000t of MOP this year, as the country’s agriculture sector begins its recovery from adverse conditions last year...

Japan 
Agricultural association Zen-noh’s domestic MOP retail price that took effect from June this year is up by $24/t on the previous levels... 

Bangladesh 
The Bangladesh agriculture ministry’s tender for the supply of 353,000t of standard MOP closed in June, with product sourced from Belarus taking 245,000t of the total... 

China 
The first round of official negotiations over annual seaborne potash contracts began in April, and are continuing... 

India 
India’s IPL has had an initial meeting with BPC in early July, and local sources indicate that contract negotiations will take place in the second half of July... 

Australia 
Potash demand has been strong so far this year, not as a result of any increases in actual quantities used, but rather because of the international supply deficit for granular MOP, the vast majority of which has been heading to Latin America and Europe... 

Russia 
Uralkali has a series of upgrades and new capacity coming on stream in 2017-22... 

Turkmenistan 
Turkmenistan opened its first potash mine in March... 

Uzbekistan 
The 360,000 t/yr Dekhkanabad potash plant will increase capacity to 600,000 t/yr, although no timeline is available... 

Belarus 
Output and exports of Belaruskali’s MOP will fall in the second half of this year, as a result of planned turnarounds... 

Europe 
European granular MOP buying remains muted after a strong period early in the second quarter that slowed in June... 

UK 
The UK government has formally notified the EU of its intention to leave the EU... 

Germany 
Recent hot and dry weather conditions and heavy rainfall in some regions have made harvests more difficult to predict, leaving farmers cautious about fertilizer buying... 

US 
The North American market has been fairly rangebound at $205-215/st for granular MOP in June, as imported product vacated the marketplace, with traders turning their attention to securing summer tonnages... 

                  

INVENTORY ANALYSIS

North American inventories were at around 3.12mn t of MOP at the end of March...

               

AGRICULTURE ANALYSIS

Oversupply to persist despite production reductions 
Excess supply will feature heavily in global crop markets in 2017-18, despite widespread year-on-year output reductions, the latest reports from major monitoring agencies indicate... 

                 

PLANT UPDATES

Canada-BHP Billiton plans to begin production at its Jansen potash mine in Saskatchewan by 2023...

Canada-Western Potash is aiming to start construction of its 146,000 t/yr potash mine in Saskatchewan, Canada, in early 2018...               

                           

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