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Argus Olefins Outlook

 

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7/25更新情報                 

                        

                    

OUTLOOK

Ethylene
US ethylene will remain volatile, but will be structurally long over the next two years...

Propylene 
US propylene is softening with returning and anticipated new production, and will look to export markets for demand....                                 

ETHYLENE FEEDSTOCKS

High volatility is expected, but average spreads are already dropping significantly as the US becomes long in ethylene and less long on ethane...

PROPYLENE FEEDSTOCKS

The US propylene contract settled up 0.5¢/lb ($11/t) for July compared to June, reflecting a slightly tighter market stemming from production outages...

GLOBAL CRUDE AND FEEDSTOCKS

Oil markets have been on a roller coaster as participants remain concerned about market oversupply in the face of increased production in Libya and Nigeria, where disruptions to oil production have diminished and oil exports are rising...


Naphtha 
US gasoline inventories have been declining with strong exports driving demand, and overall refinery utilization above 94pc...

             
                  

AMERICAS OUTLOOK

Ethylene
Asset start-up timing and global/Asia demand health remain the two most critical drivers of US ethylene and polyethylene prices and margins over the next two years...

Propylene
US propylene markets are set to move lower in the coming months as returning and new supplies will enter a market with little new derivative capacity...

Polyethylene
PE producers are attempting to push margins higher ahead of the start-up of new PE units set to come online near the end of the third quarter...

Polypropylene
PP prices have continued to track propylene through July, but producers will make an effort in August to grow margins...

PVC
PVC contracts for July appear likely to settle flat for a fourth consecutive month, as healthy domestic demand continues to support stability despite declining feedstock costs...

            

                                            

EUROPE OUTLOOK


Ethylene
The near-term ethylene balance has been tighter than expected due to delayed cracker restarts after planned maintenance...

Propylene
The near-term market is balanced amid robust demand...

Polyethylene

Despite recent above cost reductions in PE prices for May and June, integrated PE margins remain well above historic levels...

Polypropylene
The PP market remains balanced-to-tight with robust demand, good copolymer export volumes and supply constrained by planned and unplanned maintenance...

PVC
PVC remains balanced to strong...      

                          

ASIA-PACIFIC OUTLOOK

Ethylene
The downtrend of ethylene in Asia-Pacific is taking a pause because of some production hiccups due to the hot summer weather, the completion of an inventory cycle translating into better derivative demand in China, and additional derivative demand...

Propylene
Cracker turnarounds have almost ended, but China’s propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plant maintenance and unexpected production losses in South Korea resulted in a tight balance in July...

Polyethylene
Polyethylene supply-demand appears to be stabilizing in Asia in the short term, although the outlook is bearish for the remainder of 2017...

Polypropylene
PP has been steadier than PE, supported in part by a rebound in propylene...

PVC
The Chinese domestic polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market continues to surge with rising PVC futures...


SPECIAL TOPIC

LPG demand outlook
Rising global LPG production and consumption appears relatively assured for the next decade, but Argus forecasts that the marked structural length in supply – a feature of the market since 2014 – will peak in 2020 at 12.3mn t, before easing and becoming a 1.1mn t supply shortage by 2027...

            

                               

DATA

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