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Argus Toluene and Xylenes Outlook

 

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6/26 更新情報

 

             

OUTLOOK

Near-term outlook
Toluene and MX in the US will be supported by strong chemical margins, but supply could easily lengthen if additional imports arrive into the US Gulf coast...

Longer-term outlook
Long-term oversupply scenarios for toluene, MX, and PX in Asia-Pacific will weaken global pricing in 2018...

                    

GLOBAL CRUDE AND FEEDSTOCKS

Crude

Feedstocks

                  

SUPPLY AND DEMAND-US

Supply dynamics
Toluene: Toluene extraction rates in the US could get a boost from lower blend values this summer, but continued imports from South America, Europe and Asia will keep the market well supplied forcing US producers to watch extraction rates and economics closely...
MX: Domestic mixed xylenes (MX) production in June will slow down amid production issues at a producer in the US Gulf coast region that had been supplying MX chemical demand since 2H 2016...
PX: Strong paraxylene (PX) margins in Asia that kept prices higher for most of 1H 2017 will last for another couple of months, while turnaround outages conclude in that region...

Demand dynamics
Toluene: While demand for gasoline blending has been non-existent this year, chemical demand will continue to keep toluene prices from falling along blend values for the rest of 2017...
MX: Similar to toluene, blending demand for MX has been soft this year and refiners have been able to commit to chemical sales more often than in recent years...
PX: Demand for domestic PX has increased significantly this year compared to last year as extraction margins improved in 2017...
PET chain: PET margins are expected to continue to decline through the rest of 2017 before picking up slightly in 2018...

Supply/ demand balance
The US supply and demand balance picture for this summer will depend mostly on how attractive it will be for refiners to extract both toluene and MX under the long octane conditions of the gasoline market...

                     

SUPPLY AND DEMAND- EUROPE

Supply dynamics: Refinery rates remain close to 90pc of capacity, although gasoline exports have weakened in June with gasoline and octane stocks generally at high levels...
Demand dynamics: The European economy, with the exception of the UK which is affected by political uncertainty and the complications of Brexit, is running more strongly than it has since before the financial crisis of 2008...

                  

SUPPLY AND DEMAND- ASIA-PACIFIC

Supply dynamics
Toluene: Import volumes into China have slid significantly from February of this year because of increased production capacities and high inventories within China which depressed domestic prices...
MX: There have not been many changes for mixed xylenes (MX) supply dynamics for the month of June and we are expecting a pull-back in MX production margins over the next month as demand for paraxylene (PX) feedstock wanes on scheduled maintenance at major Chinese downstream facilities during the third quarter of the year...
PX: PX margins rose to as much as a 10-week high in June, but the Asian market remains in oversupply...

Demand dynamics
Toluene: Weaken than expected demand for blend components within China has pressured component prices lower since February, including toluene...
MX: Demand for MX in the region will probably weaken going into July after Fujia Dahua confirmed a month-long turnaround at its 1.4mn t/yr Dalian-based PX unit...
PX: Dynamics for PX appear to have strengthened in June after Yisheng said it has resumed PTA production at its 650,000 t/yr Ningbo unit which has been shut since early May...
                                         

                                                          

DATA

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